No.5/1/2014- CPI
GOVERNMENT OF INDIA
MINISTRY OF LABOUR & EMPLOYMENT
LABOUR BUREAU

‘CLEREMONT’, SHIMLA-171004:
Dated the 31st October, 2014

Press Release

Consumer Price Index for Industrial Workers (CPI-IW) – September, 2014

The All-India CPI-IW for September, 2014 remained stationary at 253 (two hundred and fifty three). On 1-month percentage change, it remained stalic between August, 2014 and September, 2014 when compared with the rise of 0.42 per cent between the same two months a year ago.

The largest downward pressure to the change in current index came from Food group contributing (-) 1.04 percentage points to the total change. At item level, Fish Fresh, Poultry (Chicken), Chitlies Green, Ginger, Onion, Tomato, Brinal, French Beans, Lady’s Finger, Apple, Sugar, Medicine (Allopathie), Petrol, etc. are responsible for the decrease in index.

However, this decrease was restricted to sore extent by Rice, Wheat Atta, Arhar Dal, Potato, Cauliflower, Tea (Readymade), Snack Saltish, Bidi, Cigarette, Electricity Charges, Cinema Charges, Toilet Soap, Tailoring charges. etc.. putting upward pressure on the index.

The year-on-year inflation measured by monthly CPI-IW stood at 6.30 per cent tbr September, 2014 as compared to 6.75 per cent for the previous month and 10.70 per cent during the corresponding month of the previous year. Similarly, the Food inflation stood at 6.46 per cent against 7.63 per cent of the previous month and 13.36 per cent during the corresponding month of the previous year.

At centre level, Goa reported a decrease of 10 points followed by Nagpur (5 points). Among others, 4 points fall was observed in 6 centres, 3 points in 4 centres, 2 points in 9 centres and 1 point in 19 centres. On the contrary, Tripura recorded the maximum increase of 6 points followed by Lucknow & Jalpaiguri (4 points each) and Rourkela & Rangapara-Tezpur (3 points each). Among others, 2 points rise was registered in 8 centres and 1 point in 12 centres. Rest of the 13 centres’ indices remained stationary.

The indices of 37 centres are above and other 41 centres’ indices are below national average.

The next index of CPI-IW fut the month of October, 2014 will be released on Friday, 28 November. 2014.

The sanie will also be available on the office website www.labourbureau.gov.in

sd/-
(S.S.NEGI)
Director

The post Expected DA from Jan 2015 – AICPIN for the month of September 2014 appeared first on CENTRAL GOVERNMENT EMPLOYEES NEWS.

The All-India CPI-IW for October, 2014 remained stationary at 253 (two hundred and fifty three). On 1-month percentage change, it remained static between September, 2014 and October, 2014 Expected-da-from-january-20151.xlsx

The next index of CPI-IW for the month of November, 2014 will be released on 30th December 2014. The same will also be available on the office website www.labourbureau.gov. in.

Presently, the value of AICPIN for the month of October has been released. The value remains at 253 points. When compared to the AICPIN value of September, the present value has not gone up or down and remains constant.

To calculate the DA for Jan 2015 accurately, we need the AICPIN value for the next two months. However, we only have the AICPIN value for four months now. In the coming months, if the AICPIN value remains at 253 or 1 point increase based (254 ,255,) then we may get up to 6% DA increase i.e. 113%.

Source file-http://labourbureau.nic.in/MIL_OCT_2014_E.pdf

The post Expected da from January 2015-Aicpin for the month of October 2014 appeared first on CENTRAL GOVERNMENT EMPLOYEES NEWS.

As all of us expected, 7% DA hike has been approved by Cabinet on 4th September 2014. Necessary order for payment of DA with effect from 1st July 2014 will be issued by Ministry of Finance soon. Here after our focus will be moving on to next instalment of dearness allowance which will be paid from 1st January 2015. We just analyse the trend of Consumer Price Index with the past seven months AICPCIN to arrive the expected DA from January 2015.

Since 2006, the AICPIN has witnessed second highest ever increase in July 2014. In 2009 the AICPIN increased by 7 points from 153 to 160 in the month of July. After that, an increase of 6 points over 246 points was declared in July 2014. It is the second highest monthly increase on AICPIN records from 2006. See the table below…

What is the impact of this highest increase of AICPIN on expected Dearness Allowance from January 2015?

It is observed that when it was 7 points increase in July 2009, it influenced very much on increasing the rate of DA to be paid from 1st January 2010 and 1st July 2010. The rate of Dearness Allowance had been enhanced by 8% from 25% to 35% with effect from 1.1.2010 and 10% increase from 35% to 45% was declared with effect from 1.7.2010. Though there was no considerable increase after those 7 points in that particular 12 months from July 2009 to June 2010, the rate of DA had been reached 8% and 10% increase level for  successive two instalments.

From this point of view, it is quite obvious that this one month increase on AICPIN is enough to play a vital role to have a considerable hike in rate of Dearness Allowance for forth coming two instalments. So this 6 points increase of AICPIN in July 2014, we can expect, will have a profound impact on increasing the rate of Dearness allowance to be paid, not only from 1st January 2015, but also from July 2015.

Let us see the three probabilities of  AICPIN trend, through which we can figure out approximately the expected DA from January 2015 

Source: http://www.gservants.com

The post Expected Dearness Allowance from January 2015 appeared first on CENTRAL GOVERNMENT EMPLOYEES NEWS.