The Central Statistics Office (CSO), Ministry of Statistics and Programme Implementation has revised the Base Year of the Consumer Price Index (CPI) from 2010=100 to 2012=100 with effect from the release of indices for the month of January 2015.

2. In this press note, the CPI (Rural, Urban, Combined) on Base 2012=100 is being released for the month of October 2017. In addition to this, Consumer Food Price Index (CFPI) for all India Rural, Urban and Combined are also being released for October 2017. All India Inflation rates (on point to point basis i.e. current month over same month of last year, i.e., October 2017 over October 2016), based on General Indices and CFPIs are given as follows:

All India Inflation rates (%) based on CPI (General) and CFPI

Note: Figures of October 2017 are provisional.

5. Price data are collected from selected towns by the Field Operations Division of NSSO and from selected villages by the Department of Posts. Price data are received through web portals, maintained by the National Informatics Centre.

Next date of release: 12th December 2017 (Tuesday) for November 2017.

Authority: http://www.mospi.gov.in/

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DA from July 2016 set to increase by 6% or 7% on the basis of All India Consumer Price Index (Industrial Workers) with base year 2001=100, for Pre revised Pay (Pay prior implementation of 7th Pay Commission)

DA from July 2016 – An analysis – Labour Bureau, Govt of India has released the Consumer Price Index (IW) for the month of April 2016.

Having actual All India Consumer price index for 10 months in hand, out of AICPI-IW needed for calculation of DA, an attempt has been made here to estimate the said DA from July 2016.

This DA estimation is based on Consumer Price Index (IW) with the base year 2001=100 which is being followed presently for calculation of Dearness Allowance applicable for Central Government Employees, Defence personnel and Pensioners.

7th Pay Commission has also recommended that the same consumer price Index could be retained for granting Dearness Allowance.

Here is the extract of analysis and recommendations of 7th Pay Commission relating to Dearness Allowance

“The VICPC had recommended that the National Statistical Commission may be asked to explore the possibility of a specific survey covering government employees exclusively, so as to construct a consumption basked representative of government employees and formulate a separate index. This has, however, not been done.

Keeping in mind that the present formulation of DA has worked well over the years, and there are no demands for its alteration, the Commission recommends continuance of the existing formula and methodology for calculating the Dearness Allowance.”

Hence, it is assumed that CPI-IW with the base year 2001=100 would be followed with effect from January 2016 on implementation of 7th Pay commission report as far as Dearness Allowance is concerned.

In that case, DA from July 2016 after implementation of 7th Pay Commission has to be calculated using the following DA Calculation Formula

[ (Average of Consumer Index for the period from July -2015 to Jun-16) – (Average All India Consumer Price Index for 2015) X 100] / Average All India Consumer Price Index for 2015

Based on the above formula, after merger of DA of 125% with Basic Pay, DA from January 2016 would be calculated as 0% and Likely DA from July 2016 after implementation of 7th Pay Commission will be 2% or 3%

DA from July 2016 for Pre-Revised Pay

CPI-IW from July 2015 to April 2016

Scenario 1: Possibility of increase in DA from July 2016 for Pre-Revised Pay working out to be less than 6%

Possibility of increase in DA from July 2016 working out to be less than 6% is very remote due to the fact that the index should be getting reduced by at least 4 points in any one of the coming two months from the previous month and further reduction of at least 3 points in the other month.

In other words index for May 2016 should be getting reduced by 4 points to 267 and also witness further reduction by 3 points to 264, for increase in DA from July 2016 less than 6%. If index for May 2016 registers not more than 3 point reduction then index for June 2016 has to reduce at least by 4 points in order get the less than 6% increase in DA from July 2016

Calculation of DA from July 2016 based on CPI(IW) from July 2015 to June 2016

Scenario 2: Possibility of increase in DA from July 2016 for Pre-Revised Pay working out to be 6%

Even if index gets lower by 3 points during both of these months compared to previous month, viz., May 2016 registers 3 point reduction from April and further three point reduction in June 2016 compared to May 2016, increase in DA from July 2016 will be 6%.

We are of the opinion that increase in DA from July 2016 registering at least 6% is quite possible as chances for CPI (IW) getting reduced to less than 265 from the present level 271 in two months is very remote.

Scenario 3: Possibility of increase in DA from July 2016 for Pre-Revised Pay working out to be 7%

If CPI (IW) gets increased at least by 2 points in any one of the coming two months and by 1 point increase in the other month compared to previous month, then DA from July 2016 will be poised for an increase of 7%.

In other words, if consumer price index for May 2016 and June 2016 witnesses at least 2 point increase and further 1 point increase respectively or vice versa, increase in DA from July 2016 is calculated to be 7%

Considering the inflationary trend shown by 3 point increase in April 2016, this scenario may become a reality. In that case DA from July 2016 will be 7%

Scenario 4: Possibility of increase in DA from July 2016 for Pre-Revised Pay working out more than 7%

In order to get an increase in DA from July 2016 more than 7%, CPI(IW) for both May 2016 and June 2016 should witness at least 7 point increase from the present level of 271. If any one of this month registers lesser increase than 7 points then the other month has to compensate the same by registering increase of index by more than 7 points.

It is apparent that possibility for such an increase in CPI(IW) is not at all Possible. Hence we can conclude that increase in DA from July 2016 may not be more than 7%

Source: gconncect.in

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Press Release

Consumer  Price Index for Industrial  Workers  (CPI-IW) – April, 2016

The All-India CPI-IW for April, 2016 increased by 3 points and pegged at 271 (two  hundred  and  seventy  one).  On  l-rnonth  percentage  change,  it  increased  by (+)  1.12 per cent  between  March,  2016 and April,  2016 when  compared  with  the increase of(+)  0.79 per cent between the same two months a year ago.

The maximum upward pressure to the change in current index came from Food group contributing  (+)  2.65  percentage  points  to the  total  change.  At  item  level, Wheat, Arhar Dal, Gram Dal, Masur Dal, Urd Oal, Groundnut Oil, Poultry (Chicken), Milk, Chillies Dry, Chillies Green, Potato, Tomato,  Seasonal Vegetables and Fruits. Tea (Readymade), Sugar, Doctors’  Fee, Petrol, Tailoring Charges, etc. are responsible for the increase in index. However, this increase was checked  by Rice, Fish Fresh, Garlic, Onion, Soft Coke, Flower/Flower  Garlands, etc., putting downward  pressure on the index.

The year-on-year  inflation measured by monthly CPI-IW stood at 5.86 per cent for April, 2016 as compared to 5.51 per cent for the previous month and 5.79 per cent during the corresponding  month of the previous  year.  Similarly, the  Food  inflation stood at 7.55 per cent against 6.16 per cent of the previous  month and 5.30 per cent during the corresponding month of the previous year.

At centre level, Rourkela reported the maximum increase of 10 points followed by  Goa  (8  points),   Angul-Talcher,   Rangapara-Tezpur,   Warrangal,   Sholapur  and Varanasi (7 points each). Among others, 6 points increase was observed in 3 centres,S points in 10 centres,  4 points in 15 centres,   3 points  in 11 centres,  2 points in 11 centres and  1 point  in  11 centres.  On  the  contrary,  Quilon  recorded  a  maximum decrease of 5 points followed by Madurai (3 points), Salem and Rajkot (2 points each) and  Tiruchirapally  and  Ghaziabad  (1  point  each).  Rest  of  the  4  centres’   indices remained stationary.

The  indices  of  35 centres  are  above  All-India  Index  and  other  41 centres’ indices are  below  national  average. The  indices of Vishakhapatnam  and Ludhiana centres remained at par with All-India Index.

The next  issue of CPI-IW  for the month  of May, 2016  will  be released  on Thursday,  30th  June,  2016. The same  will also  be available  on the office website www.labourbureaunew.gov.in.

Source: Labour Ministry Press Release dated 31.05.2016

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2 Points increased and pegged at 263.

As per the press release of Labour Bureau today, the All India Consumer Price Index (IW) is increased by two points from the existing level and stands at 263.

The CPI-IW for the month of August, 2015 will be released on 30st September, 2015.

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Centre to survey spending patterns of working class

In a bid to understand the spending patterns and living conditions of working class, the Centre has decided to conduct a survey of workers’ family income and expenditure.

The survey, which will be conducted by the National Sample Survey Organisation, a Government of India body, will be used to finalise consumer price index (CPI) numbers for the working class. The CPI is the base for deciding dearness allowances (DA) of the working class.

“The Working Class Family Income and Exemption Survey-2015 will cover workers engaged in seven organised sectors of employment-registered factories, mines, plantations, ports & docks, public motor transport undertakings, electricity generating and distributing establishments, and railways,” an official from NSSO told Deccan Herald.

The survey will be conducted in 88 centres spreading across 28 states and union territories including Delhi, Karnataka, Andhra Pradesh and Uttar Pradesh. The survey will be conducted in eight places in Karnataka — Bengaluru, Belagavi, Chikkamagaluru, Davangere-Harihar, Hubballi-Dharwad, Kodagu, Mysuru and Mangaluru.

Read more at: Deccan Herald

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The official Wholesale Price Index for ‘All Commodities’ (Base: 2004-05 = 100) for the month of March, 2015 rose by 0.2 percent to 176.1 (provisional) from 175.8 (provisional) for the previous month.

INFLATION
The annual rate of inflation, based on monthly WPI, stood at -2.33% (provisional) for the month of March, 2015 (over March, 2014) as compared to -2.06% (provisional) for the previous month and 6.00% during the corresponding month of the previous year. Build up inflation rate in the financial year so far was -2.33% compared to a build up rate of 6.00% in the corresponding period of the previous year.

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According to the news paper report, the Central Government to release new series of CPI inflation in February…

To present a more accurate and realistic price situation, the government will release next month a new series of Consumer Price Index (CPI) with 2012 as base year for computing retail inflation rate.

The Central Statistics Office (CSO) is in the process revising the Base Year from 2010=100 to 2012=100 so that the gap between Price Reference Year (Base Year) and the Weight Reference Year has been minimised. The first series (revised) would be compiled for January which will be released on February 12 and from January 2016 onwards, inflation rates would be compiled using the actual CPI of the revised series.

Besides, the government has notified a number of methodological improvements have been introduced in the revised series. Prices of Antyodaya Anna Yojanna (AAY) have also been included in addition to Above Poverty Line (APL) & Below Poverty Line (BPL) prices being taken in the existing series.

The weight of food and beverages would be 45.86 in the new series compared to 47.58 in 2010 series for national index. The weight of fuel and light segment would be 6.84 in the new series which is 9.49 in the 2010 series. The weight of clothing and footware segment would be increased to 6.53 from 4.73.

The weight of housing will also be increased to 10.07 from 9.77. Further, the weight of pan, tobacco and intoxicants will be increased to 2.38 from 2.13 in 2010 series. Similarly the weight of miscellaneous will also be increased to 28.32 from 26.31 in the new series.

The number of priced items has been changed from 437 to 448 in rural and from 450 to 460 in urban at all India level. In the revised series, 11 new priced items have also been added, without dropping any item, in rural sector at all India level. In case of urban, 7 priced items have been dropped and 17 new priced items have been added.

Source : PTI

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General Secretary of Confederation for Karnataka State Shri P.S.Prasad has written an article on his blog about the Consumer Price Index for the purpose of calculating Dearness allowance to Central Government employees and Pensioners…

The detailed report of article has been reproduced and given below for your information…

DA & CPI UNDER ATTACK

The Consumer Price Index is the main base for calculation of Dearness Allowance for the Central Government and State Government Employees and also the Industrial and Bank Employees.

a) Housing should be given as 15% instead of just 9.77 %.

b) Medical should be increased to 15% from 5.31 %.

c) The Miscellaneous items should be reduced to just 5% instead of 26.31 %

1) There is vast difference between the real price increase and CPI thus an Employee is deprived of the real DA.

2) The Government of India is thinking that the CPI is bloated or wrong that has made burden on the financial burden on them hence it wants to reduce its expenditure by modifying the CPI as a result of this what DA we used to get 10% half yearly and this year by 20%, this can be avoided by next year, hence it is seriously considering the aspect of revising the All India weights of many items such as food which is at 59% to 30%. By this the whole CPI increase will be limited to just 8 to 9 points in a year rather than 25 points in a year by this we get only 3 to 4 % DA every six months rather than 10% DA which we are used to get due to high inflation and drastic rise in prices.

From the above it is quite clear there is no weightage for rural housing & Miscellaneous weightage is much more than required.
Which is effecting DA calculation.

List of 252 Items

[http://karnatakacoc.blogspot.in/2013/09/da-cpi-under-attack.html]

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Therefore DA from July, 2013 will be 90% and will be announced in September or October in this year.

This 3 point increase in June, 13 AICPIN has also confirmed minimum 7% increase in Dearness Allowance in Jan-2014.  Next two months’ AICPIN will give exact figure of expected DA.   This time calculation says that if no any increase occurred in next 6 months in AICPIN the 7% increase in expected DA of Jan-2014 is confirm.  See second table below:-

Now the above table and growth trends in AICPIN and inflation also indicates 100% DA from Jan-2014 and 25% increase in allowance.

DOWNLOAD: EXCEL FILE FOR EXPECTED DEARNESS CALCULATION TO CALCULATE YOURSELF 

Source: PIB via karnmk.blogspot.in/

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Consumer Price Index Numbers for Industrial Workers (CPI-IW) June 2013

According to a press release issued today by the Labour Bureau, Ministry of Labour & Employment the All-India CPI-IW for June, 2013 rose by 3 points and pegged at 231 (two hundred and thirty one). On 1-month percentage change, it increased by 1.32 per cent between May and June compared with 0.97 per cent between the same two months a year ago.

The largest upward pressure to the change in current index came from Food group contributing 2.98 percentage points to the total change. At item level, Rice, Fish Fresh, Eggs (Hen), Poultry (Chicken), Milk, Onion, Ginger, Chillies Green, Potato, Tomato & other Vegetables, Tea Leaf, Tea (Readymade), Bidi, Cigarette, Electricity Charges, Doctor’s fee, Medicine (Allopathic), Petrol, etc. are responsible for the rise in index. However, this was compensated by Wheat, Groundnut Oil and Mustard Oil putting downward pressure on the index.

The year-on-year inflation measured by monthly CPI-IW stood at 11.06 per cent for June, 2013 as compared to 10.68 per cent for the previous month and 10.05 per cent during the corresponding month of the previous year. Similarly, the Food inflation stood at 14.86 per cent against 13.24 per cent of the previous month and 10.45 per cent during the corresponding month of the previous year.

At centre level, Pune, Bhilai and Guntur recorded the highest increase of 8 points each followed by Jalpaiguri, Asansol, Mumbai, Bokaro, Siliguri and Kanpur (7 points each) and Warrangal and Vijaywada (6 points each). Among others, 5 points rise was registered in 9 centres, 4 points in 8 centres, 3 points in 12 centres, 2 points in 15 centres, and 1 point in 14 centres. On the contrary, a decline of 1 point each was recorded in Amritsar and Coimbatore centres. Rest of the 7 centres’ indices remained stationary.

The indices of 39 centres are above All-India Index and other 38 centres’ indices are below national average. The index of Bhilwara centre remained at par with all-India index.

The next index of CPI-IW for the month of July, 2013 will be released on Friday, 30 August, 2013. The same will also be available on the office website www.labourbureau.gov.in.

PIB News

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