Central Government Employees, Pensioners and family Pensioners may get Dearness Allowance of 80% with effect from 1st January 2013

The price index which is called as AICPI – IW (All India Consumer price Index for industrial workers with the base as 2001=100) for the month of September 2012 has been issued by Government.

Click here to reade the press release issued by Governement for publishing AICPI-IW for the month of September 2012

This is the table All India consumer price index AICPI-IW for the period from January 2012 to September 2012

Scenario 1:

If we assume that there is no inflation from October 2012 and the AICPI-IW remains at 215 for the months of October, November and December 2012, the expected DA for the Central Government Employees and pensioners will be 80%, which is 8% more than the present 72%

Scenario 2:

If we assume that the inflation will be contained in the coming months and consequently AICPI-IW will be 210 for months from October 2012 to December 2012. Then based on following indices from January 2012 to December 2012 we get estimated DA of 79% with effect from January 2013, which is 7% more than the present 72%

Scenario 3:

If we assume that the nominal inflationary trend to continue in the coming months and consequently AICPI – IW increases 1 point each for the months from October 2012 to December 2012. Then expected DA will be 80% with effect from 1st January 2013, which is 8% more than the present 72%

Scenario 4:

If assume that inflation is more in the coming months and consequently AICPI-IW for the months from October 2012 to December 2012 increased two points each. Then expected DA will be 81% with effect from 1st January 2013, which is 9% more than the present 72%.

we may get DA of 80% with effect from 1st January 2012 if we have same inflationary trend continues or even if we have no further inflation in the coming months:

Based on the pattern we assume the chances for likely happening of scenario 1 and 3 are more. So, we may get DA of 80% with effect from 1st January 2012. The possibility of happening of scenario 4 is very less but we can not overrule the same in this inflationary trend. In that case we may get an additional DA of 9% with effect from 1st January 2013.

Click to read the full article, www.gconnect.in

[http://www.gconnect.in/ask-gc/aicpi-iw-for-sep-12-released-likely-increase-in-da-from-jan-2013-is-8.html]

As we are in the halfway mark of calculating D.A. effective from 01.01.2013, let us try to predict it based on current trend. The AICPI-IW No. for three months , i.e. July, Aug, Sep 2012 is punlished by the labour bureau. It is respectively 212,214 and 215. Based on current situation, if we assume that inflation will remain same and the next three months figure remains static at 215, the total D.A. will be 80% of pay as on 01.01.2013.

If the figure increases 1 point each in the coming three months, the D.A. will still be 8%.

If the figure increases 2 point each in the coming three months, the D.A. will then be be 9%, which is not very likely.

So we predict a 8% rise in D.A. for Central Govt. employees with effect from January 2013.

Source: www.paycommissionupdate.blogspot.in

[http://paycommissionupdate.blogspot.in/2012/11/central-employees-may-get-8-da-from.html

Expectation of future Dearness Allowance from January, 2013 on the basis of 2 points jump in CPI-IW for the month of August, 2012 and 1 point jump in September, 2012 giving expectation for DA  80% or more from January 2013.

All India Consumer Price Index Number [http://labourbureau.nic.in/indtab.html] for Industrial Workers (CPI-IW) on base 2001=100 for September, 2012 showing increase in 1 point and stood at 215 (Two hundred and fifteen).

Expectation-1

If we expect only 1 point increase in this index for every month the Dearness Allowance for Central Government Employee will touch 80% in January, 2013.  In view of increased LPG & Diesel price etc. we expect more monthly increase in Index and similarly in future DA.  Please go through the following calculation:-

Expected Dearness Allowance DA for Jan, 2013 calculated as under:

Dearness Allowance = (Avg of AICPI for the past 12 months – 115.76)*100/115.76